The diagnostics of bankruptcy threat to enterprises

Kristina Garškaitė-Milvydienė

Doctoral dissertation

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The dissertation considers the problems associated with diagnostics of enterprise bankruptcy and methods of its prediction and prevention. The main aim of the work is the development of a diagnostic system for determining the threat of bankruptcy to enterprises, which could be easily adaptable to rapidly changing business environment and help greatly increase bankruptcy prediction reliability. The dissertation consists of the Introduction, four Chapters and Conclusions, as well as References, a list of the author‟s publications on the topic of the dissertation and Annexes (provided electronically in the computer database).

The Introduction considers the research problem, the significance of the research and the research object. The aim of the work and the main tasks are also stated and the research methods, the statements defended, the novelty of the work and practical value of the investigation results are presented. At the end of the Introduction the structure of the thesis is described.

In Chapter 1, the statistics, reflecting the bankruptcy of enterprises, the factors influencing bankruptcy and its causes, as well as the stages of enterprise crisis and the prevention of enterprise bankruptcy, including bankruptcy diagnostics as an essential part, are analyzed.

Chapter 2 presents a survey of the scientific literature focusing on the financial analysis, diagnostics of enterprise bankruptcy and the problems associated with bankruptcy prevention, as well as methods and means used to achieve it. The conformity of the methodological potential of the existing enterprise bankruptcy diagnostics (including the models of bankruptcy prognosis) with practical needs is determined.

In Chapter 3, the empirical research, carried out for checking the reliability and applicability of popular models of enterprise bankruptcy prognosis, is described. The results of this research are used as a basis for stating the requirements to the essential component of the system of enterprise bankruptcy threat diagnostics – a model of integrated evaluation. The prototype of this model and the algorithm of its adaptation to particular applications are also presented.

Chapter 4 describes the developed complex system of enterprise bankruptcy threat diagnostics based on some new principles and consisting of three interrelated but different analysis components. When this system is applied, enterprise bankruptcy threat diagnostics is carried out based on the principle: from general (integrated estimate) to concrete (assessment of problem areas and causes of the state diagnosed) evaluation.

Fifteen papers are published on the topic of dissertation: six papers are published in the journals abstracted in EBSCO Business Source Complete database, two papers – in the reviewed journals and seven – in the proceedings based on the reports made at the conferences.

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162 p.
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