The model of the country‘s economic indicators dynamics

Nomeda Bratčikovienė

Doctoral dissertation

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The doctoral thesis investigates the opportunities for the modelling of leading county‘s economic indicators, analyses the theoretical and practical assumptions, the limitations conditioned by the country’s economic features, studies the structure of economic models existing in Lithuania and foreign countries, the set of economic indicators used and selected methods of modelling. A comparative analysis of economic modelling methods was also carried out. The object of this research is the time series of macroeconomic, business and social indicators.

The goal of the work – to create the model of indicators that measure the country‘s economic dynamics, which enables the comprehensive assessment of the adequacy, coherence and interoperability of available economic indicators, the investigation and analysis of the current economic situation and its sustainability, the evaluation of the consequences of changes in certain economic indicators for the economic situation, the development of different economic scenarios, and the assessment of the country’s economic prospects.

The main tasks solved in the work: determination of the structure and theoretical validity of the model of county‘s economic indicators dynamics, selection of appropriate comprehensive modelling methods, investigation of the accuracy and stability of the model and forecasts, development of software.

After an analysis of existing economic modelling methods, in order to achieve the objectives and goals of the thesis, it was decided to create a new methodology for the assessment of the country‘s economic situation and prospects, which enabled a more accurate and full reflection of the current economic processes.

The thesis consists of an introduction, three chapters, general conclusions, references, a list of the author’s publications on the topic of the thesis, a summary in English. The introduction reveals the relevance of the problem, formulates the objective, tasks of the work, and highlights its scientific and practical novelty. The first chapter presents a broad review of the economic models existing in Lithuania and foreign countries. The second chapter is dedicated to the selection of a methodology for the modelling of county‘s economic indicators. The third chapter provides the results of the practical realisation of the methodology proposed.

Ten presentations on the topic of the thesis were made at scientific international and national conferences and nine reviewed scientific papers were published: one – in a scientific periodical journal included in the ISI Web of Science database, five – in reviewed scientific journals, three – other reviewed publications.

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145×205 mm
146 p.
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